March 24, 2017 by Jean Paul Lagarde – Since our last note “Cupcakes with Sprinkles on Top” the economic data continues to improve which we believe will support rising GDP estimates and inflation which is bullish for stocks and bearish for fixed income. Our stance continues to be growth for now, and embracing said growth with caution. In late January, preliminary …
Cupcakes with Sprinkles on Top
January 25, 2017 by Jean Paul Lagarde – With the Presidential inauguration behind us, let us examine the state of the U.S. economy and the market’s expectations of it. As we highlighted in the December investment note, the economy has, in fact, accelerated since the recent low in GDP growth of 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2016, which …
“Where’s the Beef?”
December 28, 2016 by Jean Paul Lagarde – Facing the second longest bull market since the great depression, we question the foundational footings of such a long streak. Have we entered into a new era of productivity or prosperity in the U.S.? We think not. If we take the pulse of this economy, we will see that several industries are …
Under the Big Top Might Not be the Best Place to Hide
December 28, 2016 by Jean Paul Lagarde – One could say this is the year of the circus … In order to gain insight into the true strength of the economy, we must strive to understand aggregate demand, which is to a large degree, a function of the U.S. consumer and their disposition to spending. The reality is that many …
The Realities of Risk & Probability of the Improbable
December 28, 2016 by Jean Paul Lagarde – Let the U.S. election and the market’s violent reactions downward, and then suddenly upward, serve as a not so gentle reminder that there is significant risk in the equity markets. Like a coiled spring, it can move dramatically in very short periods of time. The day after the election culminated in an …
The Extended Cycle: The Economy’s Unexpected Shift from Slowing to Growing – December 2016 Market Commentary
December 28, 2016 by Jean Paul Lagarde – A fundamental shift has occurred in the market, taking place weeks before the election and aided by the enthusiasm of president-elect Trump’s pro-business agenda. The duration of this economic phase transition is difficult to predict for many reasons, particularly because the Trump platform has not been completely flushed out. The ramifications of …